CMIP6 evaluation and projection of precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
Precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)has a significant impact on regional climate and water cycling.Understanding the impact of global warming on the trend of precipitation over the QXP is crucially important.This article assesses the simulation results of 20 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models with the gridded observations for the period of 1995-2014 to evaluate the performance of CMIP6 models in simulating precipitation over the QXP.The results indicate that the CMIP6 models reasonably capture the spatial distributions of precipitation on the QXP,which decrease from the southeast to the northwest,but the model simulations still suffer from wet bias,the mean precipitation bias is 1.3 mm·d-1.And there is a large model spread of simulated winter precipitation,the standard deviation is larger than 3 mm·d-1.Under the scenario of the Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5,future projections of precipitation in the mid-term(2045-2065)and long term(2081-2100)based on the ensemble of 20 models(AMME)and the ensemble of 5 optimal models(BMME)show that the future precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is expected to increase,with larger increases under SSP5-8.5 than under SSP2-4.5,and larger increases in long term than mid-term.Spatially,the mid-term precipitation changes align with the long-term,with most areas showing increases in year-and seasonal-averaged precipitation,except for the southern portion of the region in winter and fall,and the eastern portion of the region in summer,which show decreases in precipitation.Notably,BMME projections tend to be higher magnitudes of increase in both annual and seasonal precipitation compared to the AMME.In future scenarios,the increase of annual precipitation is predominantly attributable to the increase of springtime rainfall.
国家科技期刊平台
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