How Does the Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect the Business Risk of Export Firms?
Given increasing"anti-globalization"sentiments and the rise of trade protectionism,China's policy authorities should consider the risk impact on export enterprises of unexpected adjustments of trade policy.This paper employs trade matching data of Chinese industrial enterprises and Chinese customs records,finding that uncertainty around trade policy will significantly increase the operating risk of export enterprises;the result holds even after a series of robustness tests.The mechanism analysis shows that the commercial credit crunch,rising production costs,and the intensification of financing constraints are channels for the above effects.At the same time,financial marketization and trade liberalization can significantly adjust the positive relationship between them.Heterogeneity analysis shows that trade policy uncertainty has a greater impact on the risk of export enterprises that are engaged in general trade,are more trade-dependent,and export to destinations other than those with which China has a trade agreement.China's government departments should further consolidate the work of"stabilizing foreign trade"and"preventing risks"and actively promote financial marketization and trade liberalization.
万方数据
维普
