Research progress and prospects on summer extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
With global warming,extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent and intense,affecting broader regions and presenting significant global challenges.The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,known as the"roof of the world,"has a unique geographical position and fragile ecosystem,making it particularly sensitive to climate change.Extreme precipitation events exacerbate the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and trigger natural disasters such as landslides,mudslides,and floods,posing severe risks to local populations and ecosystems.This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent research on summer extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,focusing on four key aspects:1)definitions and indices of extreme precipitation;2)characteristics of summer extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau;3)factors influencing extreme summer precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau;and 4)disaster risks and future projections of summer ex-treme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The percentile threshold method is widely used to define ex-treme precipitation,revealing a pattern of"less in the northwest and more in the southeast"across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.There is a notable increasing trend in extreme precipitation,characterized by extended durations and a greater contribution to total precipitation.Extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is highly sensitive to both natural and anthropogenic factors.The determinants are complex and multifaceted,involving interactions with global warming,atmospheric circulation patterns,and multi-scale weather systems.Key dynamic and thermodynamic factors,such as ascending motions,moisture transport and convergence,and enhanced atmospheric convective instability,create conditions conducive to the intensification of extreme precipitation.Future climate model projections consistently suggest an intensification of the global water cycle,increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation under continued global warming.These trends are more pronounced under high-emission scenarios compared to moderate and low-emission scenarios,posing significant challenges to the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau's fragile eco-systems and socio-economic advancement.While considerable progress has been made in understanding extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,many complex issues require further investigation.This review aims to summarize current knowledge and highlight future research directions,enhancing our unders tanding of extreme precipitation patterns and their im-pacts on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and surrounding regions.By providing theoretical insights into the challenges posed by climate change on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,this paper seeks to inform more effective responses to the evolving threats of global warming and extreme precipitation events.
Qinghai-Xizang Plateausummer extreme precipitationglobal warmingsea surface temperature a-nomalydisasters risksfuture projections
万方数据
维普
