摘要
在全球变暖背景下,极端降水正日益频繁、剧烈并影响更广泛的区域.特别是在气候变化的敏感区域——青藏高原(以下简称高原),这些现象的发生频率和强度均有显著增加,对当地乃至下游地区的生态环境和生产生活造成了重大影响.因此,对高原极端降水进行深入研究具有深远的科学意义和社会价值.本文从极端降水定义与指数、高原夏季极端降水特征、影响高原夏季极端降水的因素、高原夏季极端降水的灾害风险与未来预估四个方面,对近几十年来高原夏季极端降水的相关研究成果进行了回顾.通过梳理和分析相关领域的研究成果,以期为研究者提供清晰的研究脉络和前沿动态,促进学术交流与合作,共同推动高原极端降水领域的科学研究持续深入,为全球气候变化及极端天气气候事件研究和应对提供更加坚实和有力的科学支撑.
Abstract
With global warming,extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent and intense,affecting broader regions and presenting significant global challenges.The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,known as the"roof of the world,"has a unique geographical position and fragile ecosystem,making it particularly sensitive to climate change.Extreme precipitation events exacerbate the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and trigger natural disasters such as landslides,mudslides,and floods,posing severe risks to local populations and ecosystems.This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent research on summer extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,focusing on four key aspects:1)definitions and indices of extreme precipitation;2)characteristics of summer extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau;3)factors influencing extreme summer precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau;and 4)disaster risks and future projections of summer ex-treme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The percentile threshold method is widely used to define ex-treme precipitation,revealing a pattern of"less in the northwest and more in the southeast"across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.There is a notable increasing trend in extreme precipitation,characterized by extended durations and a greater contribution to total precipitation.Extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is highly sensitive to both natural and anthropogenic factors.The determinants are complex and multifaceted,involving interactions with global warming,atmospheric circulation patterns,and multi-scale weather systems.Key dynamic and thermodynamic factors,such as ascending motions,moisture transport and convergence,and enhanced atmospheric convective instability,create conditions conducive to the intensification of extreme precipitation.Future climate model projections consistently suggest an intensification of the global water cycle,increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation under continued global warming.These trends are more pronounced under high-emission scenarios compared to moderate and low-emission scenarios,posing significant challenges to the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau's fragile eco-systems and socio-economic advancement.While considerable progress has been made in understanding extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,many complex issues require further investigation.This review aims to summarize current knowledge and highlight future research directions,enhancing our unders tanding of extreme precipitation patterns and their im-pacts on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and surrounding regions.By providing theoretical insights into the challenges posed by climate change on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,this paper seeks to inform more effective responses to the evolving threats of global warming and extreme precipitation events.
基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42030611)
第二次青藏高原科学考察与研究(STEP)计划(2019QZKK0105)
江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KY-CX23_1301)
维普
万方数据