Trend analysis of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality in Xuzhou from 2008 to 2022
Objective:To analyze the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality in Xuzhou from 2008 to 2022,and explore the influence of age,period and cohort on HIV/AIDS,so as to provide scientific guidance for effective HIV control.Methods:Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the trends of inci-dence and mortality of HIV/AIDS in Xuzhou from 2008 to 2022.Results:From 2008 to 2022 in Xuzhou,the inci-dence of HIV/AIDS in the total population and males average annually increased by 13.93%[average annual per-cent change(AAPC)=13.93%,P＜0.001]and 18.78%(AAPC =18.78%,P＜0.001),respectively.The mortality of HIV/AIDS in the total population and males average annually increased by 6.15%[annual percent change(APC)=AAPC =6.15%,P =0.001]and 10.48%(AAPC =10.48%,P =0.001),respectively,while in female average annually declined 4.93%(APC =AAPC =-4.93%,P =0.016).From 2008 to 2022,the lon-gitudinal age curve of the incidence of HIV/AIDS showed a"J"-shaped upward trend,and the longitudinal age curve of the mortality of HIV/AIDS showed a fluctuating upward trend among total population in Xuzhou.The peri-od RR values of HIV incidence and mortality increased first and then decreased for both male and female.The co-hort effect showed that the peak risk was in the male cohort born between 2003 and 2007,while for female was in the cohort born between 1968 and 1972.The birth cohort effect of total population and male mortality risk remained stable.The risk of death in the female birth cohort fluctuated less.Conclusion:The incidence and mortality of HIV/AIDS in the total population of Xuzhou showed an increasing trend from 2008 to 2022,and the incidence and mortality risk of males were higher than those of females.The risk of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality is greater in older age groups,and the highest incidence in the male cohort born between 2003 and 2007.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
