Factors influencing recurrence after painless electronic colonoscopy polypectomy and establishment of a Nomogram predictive model
Objective:To explore the factors influencing recurrence after painless electronic colonoscopy polypec-tomy and establish a Nomogram predictive model.Methods:The clinical data of 309 patients who underwent pain-less electronic colonoscopy polypectomy in our hospital were retrospectively collected,and they were randomly di-vided into training set(206 cases)and validation set(103 cases)by computer random number table method with a ratio of 2∶1.All patients were followed up for 12 months after surgery,and the recurrent patients in the training set were included in the recurrence group,and the rest were included in the non-recurrence group.The clinical data of the recurrence group and the non-recurrence group in the training set were compared.The influencing factors of postoperative recurrence were analyzed by Logistic regression model,and the Nomogram predictive model was estab-lished and its effectiveness was evaluated.Results:Logistic regression analysis showed that helicobacter pylori(Hp)infection,hyperlipidemia,polyp number,polyp diameter,adenomatous polyp,and postoperative use of recurrence prevention drugs were influencing factors of recurrence after painless electronic colonoscopy polypectomy(P＜0.05).The Nomogram model predicted the recurrence of the training set with an AUC of 0.955,sensitivity of 97.14％,and specificity of 88.07％.The Nomogram model predicted the recurrence of the verification set with an AUC of 0.931,sensitivity of 90.32％,and specificity of 83.61％.Calibration curves of the training set and valida-tion set were tested by Hosmer-Lemeshow test,and there were no significant differences(x2=0.514,P=0.287;x2=0.482,P=0.201).The training set and validation set obtained clinical net benefit within risk threshold 0-0.99 and 0-0.81 respectively.Conclusion:Hp infection,hyperlipidemia,polyp number,polyp diameter,ade-nomatous polyp,and postoperative use of recurrence prevention drugs are influencing factors of recurrence after painless electronic colonoscopy polypectomy,and the Nomogram predictive model based on this has good clinical ef-ficacy for predicting postoperative recurrence.
painless electronic colonoscopypolyprecurrenceNomogram model
万方数据
维普
