Analysis of risk factors and construction of a predictive model for aspiration pneumonia in elderly nasogastric feeding patients with cerebral infarction
Objective:To analyze the risk factors and construct a prediction model for aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients with cerebral infarction and nasal feeding.Methods:The clinical data of 155 elderly patients with cerebral infarction who needed nasal feeding in our hospital from June 2021 to June 2023 were retrospectively ana-lyzed.According to the presence or absence of aspiration pneumonia during hospitalization,they were divided into aspiration pneumonia group(n=71)and non-aspiration pneumonia group(n=84).The clinical risk factors were compared between the two groups to determine the risk factors of aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients with cere-bral infarction and nasal feeding.The prediction model was constructed according to the results,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to analyze the predictive value of the prediction model for aspiration pneumonia.Results:A total of 155 patients with cerebral infarction who received nasal feeding were included in this study.The incidence of aspiration pneumonia was 45.81％(71/155).Stepwise Logistic regression analysis showed that the number of catheter insertions＞1(OR=2.380,95％CI 1.092-5.452),spontaneous cough dimin-ished or disappeared(OR=3.053,95％CI 1.697-8.751),vomiting(OR=3.182,95％CI 1.304-8.186),nasal feeding quantity ≥1 000 mL(OR=3.318,95％CI 1.155-5.836),sedative hypnotics(OR=3.598,95％CI 1.197-7.421),without swallowing function training(OR=2.062,95％CI 1.128-6.962),Glasgow coma scale(GCS)score ≤12(OR=4.649,95％CI 1.148-9.970)were the risk factors of aspiration pneumonia in se-nile cerebral infarction patients with nasal feeding.Risk prediction model was established in accordance with the above risk factors for aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients with cerebral infarction.The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.823(95％CI 0.750-0.896),and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.81 and 0.75,respectively.Conclusion:The risk prediction model constructed according to the risk factors of aspiration pneumo-nia in elderly cerebral infarction patients with nasal feeding has great reference value for the nursing of elderly cere-bral infarction patients with nasal feeding,and has the advantages of convenience and easy operation,which is suit-able for clinical application.
万方数据
维普
