Establishment and validation of a risk nomogram for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease complicated with community-acquired pneumonia
Objective:To establish and validate the risk nomogram for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)complicated with community-acquired pneumonia(CAP).Methods:From June 2022 to December 2023,182 COPD patients admitted to our hospital were stochastically assigned into a training set(91 cases)and a valida-tion set(91 cases)in a 1∶1 ratio.According to the combined CAP in COPD patients,they were grouped into a complicated CAP group and a non complicated CAP group.Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk fac-tors,and a nomogram was drawn to evaluate its discrimination and consistency.Results:A total of 182 COPD pa-tients were included.Among the 91 cases in the training set,37 cases(40.66％)complicated with CAP,and 54 cases(59.34％)did not complicate with CAP.Among the 91 cases in the validation set,39 cases(42.86％)had CAP,and 52 cases(57.14％)did not have CAP.Logistic regression analysis showed that type 2 diabetes(OR=4.250,P=0.036),stroke(OR=6.957,P=0.011),inhaled glucocorticoid(OR=6.409,P=0.010),and home oxygen therapy(OR=3.725,P=0.012)were independent risk factors for COPD complicated with CAP.In the training set,the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was 0.811(95％CI:0.725-0.897);the slope of the calibration curve was close to 1,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed x2=6.092 and P=0.413.In the validation set,the area under the ROC curve was 0.829(95％CI:0.743-0.916),and the slope of the calibration curve was close to 1.Conclusion:The nomogram based on type 2 diabetes,stroke,in-haled glucocorticoid and home oxygen therapy can effectively predict the risk of COPD complicated with CAP.
万方数据
维普
