摘要
参考中国海关总署数据库、中国茶叶出口规模监测中心和中国茶叶统计数据局的统计数据,建立ARIMA统计模型,预测我国2024年—2035的茶叶出口额数据,挖掘中国茶叶对外贸易的茶叶出口额变化规律,从中预测未来贸易前景,对可能出现的各类事件做好应对防范措施,为茶产业提供可持续发展的规划建议.
Abstract
In the context of the Belt and Road policy,China's tea export market has gradually expanded.However,under the influ-ence of peer competition,inspection standards and other factors in the foreign trade market,China's tea export volume has generally shown a trend of shock rise and then decline.Based on this background,this paper refered to a series of statistical data from databas-es(General Administration of Customs of China),China Tea Export Scale Monitoring Center,and China Tea Statistical Data Bureau to establish an ARIMA statistical model to predict China's tea export volume data from 2024 to 2035,deeply explored the changing patterns of tea export volume in China's tea foreign trade,predicted future trade prospects from it,took preventive measures against possible events,and provided sustainable development planning suggestions for the tea industry.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据