Measurement of Domestic and International Dual Circulation of China's Economy:A Comparative Analysis Based on Three Decomposition Methods
This paper discusses the limitations of using direct indicators to measure the dual circulation of the economy from a single decomposition method.By comparing direct indi-cator from different decomposition methods,this paper proposes four modified indirect in-dicators to analyse China's dual circulation economic structure.The main findings of the pa-per are:(1)Comparing to narrow direct indicators are more stable and accurate broad direct indicators have a significant overestimation issue.However,both methods have inherent flaws when comparing between industries and countries.(2)Based on the direct indicator,it is found that the proportion of internal circulation in some manufacturing industries in China has significantly decreased.This does not necessarily indicate a shift to a domestic-dominated circulation economic development pattern;it is a regression to"big domestic cir-culation for big economy".(3)Clustering analysis based on indirect indicators suggests that China's overall dual circulation pattern falls into the"big domestic circulation for big econ-omy"category,characterized by both industrial and market advantages.However,at the in-dustry level,some sectors do not possess both advantages and may even exhibit relative dis-advantages.Considering the need to develop a domestic-dominated economic pattern that promotes both domestic and international circulation,China should tailor its strategies to the specific characteristics of different industries and concentrate on integrating and governing industrial chains to unlock growth potential.
Dual CirculationGlobal Value ChainsValue AddedInput-Output Model
万方数据
