首页|人工智能影响我国全要素生产率的机制与效应研究

人工智能影响我国全要素生产率的机制与效应研究

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人工智能作为引领新一轮科技革命与产业变革的战略性技术,具有溢出带动性很强的"头雁"效应,有利于提升全要素生产率.本文分别基于宏观省级层面和微观企业层面的数据,利用企业机器人数据和智能制造试点示范项目的准自然实验,采用交叠 DID和双重机器学习等方法实证识别了人工智能对全要素生产率的作用效应.研究结果表明,人工智能发展应用在宏观和微观两个维度均较为显著地促进了我国全要素生产率的提升.在宏观层面,人工智能对东部沿海地区全要素生产率的作用效应强于对中西部地区的影响;对高市场竞争环境下的全要素生产率作用效应更明显.在微观层面,人工智能对低技术企业全要素生产率的影响强于对高技术企业的影响,对规模较大企业的影响强于对规模较小企业的影响.人工智能提升全要素生产率的机制包括提高要素配置效率、降低企业成本和增强企业研发能力.本文研究结论对于进一步深化人工智能与实体经济融合,提升全要素生产率,实现经济高质量发展具有明确意义.
Research on the Mechanism and Effect of Artificial Intelligence on Total Factor Productivity in China
As a strategic technology leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform,artificial intelligence(AI)has a strong exemplary leading wild goose effect of spillover,which is increasingly becoming an important factor in im-proving total factor productivity(TFP).Based on the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2018 and the panel data of listed companies from 2007 to 2020,using enterprise robot data and quasi-natural experiments of intelligent manufacturing demonstration project,this pa-per empirically analyzes the effect and mechanism of AI on China's TFP from the macro and micro levels by using staggered DID and dual machine learning methods.The research re-sults show that the application of AI in both macro and micro dimensions have significantly promoted the improvement of TFP in China.At the macro level,the effect of AI on TFP in the eastern coastal regions is more obvious than that in the central and western regions;The effect on TFP under the high market competition environment is more obvious.At the micro level,AI has a more significant impact on TFP of low technology enterprises than high-tech enterprises,and more significant impact on larger enterprises than smaller enterprises.The role of AI in improving TFP is mainly achieved by improving factor allocation efficiency,reducing enterprise costs and enhancing enterprise R&D capabilities.The conclusions of this study have significant policy implications for China to further promote the deep integration of AI and the real economy,improving TFP and achieving high-quality economic develop-ment.

Artificial IntelligenceTotal Factor ProductivityIntelligent ManufacturingMechanism

杜传忠、曹效喜、任俊慧

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南开大学经济与社会发展研究院(邮编:300071)

南开大学经济学院(邮编:300071)

天津智慧城市研究院(邮编:300393)

人工智能 全要素生产率 智能制造 作用机制

国家社会科学基金重大项目国家社会科学基金重点项目

20&ZD06719AZD015

2024

南开经济研究
南开大学经济学院

南开经济研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.82
ISSN:1001-4691
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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