Can Carbon Emission Trading Policy Promote Carbon Emission Reduction:A Study Based on Prefecture-Level City Panel Data
Constructing a carbon emissions trading market is an important institutional in-novation that utilizes market mechanisms to control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions,and promotes the green and low-carbon transformation of economic development.It also serves as a key driver in achieving China's commitments to sustainable economic and social development and emissions reduction.This paper adopts a macro perspective and utilizes the quasi-natural experiment of China's carbon emissions trading pilot policies since 2013.With panel data from 2003 to 2017 at the prefecture-level cities,a difference-in-differences(DID)model is employed to estimate the effectiveness of China's carbon emissions trading policy.The study reveals that the implementation of the carbon emissions trading system leads to a significant average reduction of 7.1%in carbon emissions and a significant average decrease of 6.7%in carbon intensity.These findings are robust even under the PSM-DID model.Furthermore,by examining and discussing the transaction data from the carbon emissions trading exchange,as well as the frequency of carbon emissions-related terms in government work reports,we verify the mechanisms through which emission reductions are achieved,including market mechanisms and administrative regulations.Moreover,based on city-level green patent data and electricity shortage index data,we discover that the car-bon emissions trading system not only facilitates the adoption of green and low-carbon tech-nologies in pilot areas but also reduces reliance on indiscriminate power rationing measures.We also discuss the actual effects of these two mechanisms in this process.In addition,a se-ries of heterogeneity analyses are conducted,revealing that the carbon emission reduction effects are more significant in resource-based cities,cities with greater financial pressure,and in carbon markets with stronger penalties and higher proportion of state-owned enter-prises.Finally,policy recommendations are provided.
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