A Study on the"Quantity-Quality"Transformation of Population,Economic Growth and Pension Sustainability
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China em-phasized the need to develop a multi-level,multi pillar,and sustainable pension insurance system.However,with the aging population,the decline in labor proportion,and the increase in elderly dependency ratio,issues have begun to affect the sustainability of the pension system.From the perspective of population quantity quality transformation,this paper first establishes a mathematical model to study the impact of population structure changes on economic growth and pension sustainability,then analyzes the macroeconomic results of population structure changes under different population aging levels through nu-merical simulation,and finally conducts an empirical test with the provincial panel data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2001 to 2022(excluding Xizang).The results show that:(1)population quantity structure transfor-mation has a significant negative impact on economic growth,while population quality structure transformation has a significant positive impact on economic growth;The im-provement of population quality will alleviate the impact of population decline on economic growth,that is,the population quality transition can promote economic growth.(2)The improvement of population quality enhances the sustainability of pension funds by promot-ing economic growth.(3)The transition between population quantity and quality can en-hance the sustainability of pension funds.Whether the improvement of human capital level,represented by education investment,is a proactive and conscious behavior of the parents or a result of administrative policies,the improvement of population quality is con-ducive to promoting economic growth and maintaining the balance of pension income and expenditure.
Population QuantityPopulation QualityPension Sustainability
万方数据
