Export Quality Upgrade under"the Belt and Road Initiative"
Based on the HS6 trade data of BACI database,this paper measures the export quality of China's industries to 214 countries and regions from 2010 to 2016,and uses the difference-in-difference model to identify the impact of"the Belt and Road Initiative"on the industry's export quality.Both statistics and empirical results show that the implementation of"the Belt and Road Initiative"can significantly improve the quality of industry exports,and the results have passed various robustness tests.On this basis,we further explored the potential mechanism of the initiative to affect the quality of exports,and found that the initiative promoted the export"competition effect"and OFDI"reverse spillover effect",which ultimately resulted in an overall upgrade of the industry's export quality.In addition,the analysis of heterogeneity shows that the initiative has a more significant"quality im-provement effect"on"Maritime Silk Road"countries,less developed countries,and low-tech,price-competitive industries and priority industries.Structural decomposition reveals that the improvement of industry export quality is mainly achieved by the within effects of products and the withdrawal of low-quality products."The Belt and Road Initiative"has induced a"survival of the fittest"effect.Furthermore,this paper introduces a discrete-time survival analysis model and finds that"the Belt and Road Initiative"increases the risk rate of products withdrawing from the export market,thereby reducing the duration of exports,verifying the results of quality decomposition.Firms can improve export product quality to reduce the risk of its exit from the market,thereby extending the duration of exports.The research in this paper provides a new perspective and explanation for understanding the role of"the Belt and Road Initiative"in promoting trade balance and sustainable development.
"The Belt and Road Initiative"Industry Export QualityStructural Decompo-sitionSurvival Analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
