首页|收入分配差距与银行信用风险累积——基于企业部门杠杆的视角

收入分配差距与银行信用风险累积——基于企业部门杠杆的视角

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改善收入分配状况、推进共同富裕是否有助于防范化解金融风险?立足于企业部门杠杆视角,构建包含家庭异质性、企业债务违约和银行破产特质的实际经济周期(RBC)模型,研究居民收入分配差距对银行信用风险的影响.理论模型预测显示,收入分配差距扩大会提高企业部门杠杆率,增加银行信用风险累积.其作用机制在于,收入分配差距扩大导致消费投资比下降,为企业部门加杠杆创造条件,但消费率和杠杆率的反向变动会造成企业实际收益率降低和违约风险上升,银行贷款信用风险敞口扩大.基于中国银行业数据的实证分析提供了上述理论推演成立的经验证据与微观基础.此外,本文还发现收入分配差距的影响存在地区性差异.上述结论隐含共同富裕目标的实现有利于守住不发生系统性风险底线,两个重大目标的内在逻辑自洽一致.
Income Distribution Gap and Accumulation of Bank Credit Risk:Based on the Perspective of Corporate Sector leverage
Do improving income distribution and promoting shared prosperity contribute to preventing and resolving financial risks?Based on a corporate leverage perspective,constructing an RBC(Real Business cycle)model incorporating household heterogeneity,corporate debt default,and bank bankruptcy characteristics,we examine the impact of income distribution gaps on bank credit risk.The theoretical model predicts that widening income distribution gaps will increase corporate leverage,thereby raising the cumulative credit risk for banks.The mechanism lies in the widening income distribution gaps leading to a decline in the consumption-investment ratio,creating conditions for increased leverage in the corporate sector.However,the reverse changes in consumption rates and leverage result in reduced actual corporate profitability and increased default risk,thus expanding the credit risk exposure for bank loans.Empirical analysis based on Chinese banking data provides evidence and microfoundations for the theoretical deduction mentioned above,further revealing regional disparities in the impact of income distribution gaps.These con-clusions imply that the goal of shared prosperity is consistent with the objective of safe-guarding against systemic risks,demonstrating internal coherence between these two sig-nificant objectives.

Income Distribution GapBank Credit RiskLeverage of The Enterprise Sec-torCommon ProsperityForestall Systemic Risk

陈平、秦怡

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中山大学岭南学院(邮编:510275)

收入分配差距 银行信用风险 企业部门杠杆 共同富裕 系统性风险

国家社会科学基金"新时代海洋强国建设"重大专项

19VHQ004

2024

南开经济研究
南开大学经济学院

南开经济研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.82
ISSN:1001-4691
年,卷(期):2024.(5)
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