推进数字化和绿色化的深度融合发展是当今世界的重要议题.本文提出,数字经济对具体行业碳排放的影响既存在由碳效率提升带来的"低熵"效应,又存在由总需求扩张带来的"增耗"效应.数字经济对具体行业碳排放的影响总体由两类效应共同决定,并可能对行业碳排放产生正向影响.以物流业为例,本文以 DEA 等综合评价方法系统测算了区域数字经济发展水平,采用基于工具变量的GMM面板数据模型进行了实证分析,并创新性引入引力模型形式,设计了带有固定项和时变项外生变量的数字经济工具变量,提供了基于模型形式和变量外生性合力构建工具变量的新思路.同时,本文对数字经济影响物流业碳排放的机制进行了验证.结果表明,样本期内数字经济发展水平与物流业碳排放之间存在显著的正相关关系,现阶段数字经济对物流业的增耗效应更强,且在进行替换核心变量、采用异质性分析、数字经济维度分解、城市级样本数据扩展的稳健性检验之后,该结论仍然成立.此外,本文从行业要素配置效率和能源效率两个渠道验证了低熵效应机制的显著性,从货运周转量、城镇消费物流需求两个渠道验证了增耗效应机制的显著性.本文提出,不同行业碳减排需要根据自身低熵效应和增耗效应特点实施差异化的策略.
Will Digital Economy Reduce Industrial Carbon Emissions?New Evidence from China's Logistics Industry
It has been an important issue to promote the integration of digital development and green development in today's world.This article proposes that the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions in specific industry has both the"low entropy effect"(LEE)brought about by the improvement of carbon efficiency and the"increased consumption effect"(ICE)yield from the increase of aggregate demand.Both types of impact will contribute to industrial carbon emis-sions and determine the final effect.Taking the example of logistics industry,this article employs comprehensive evaluation methods to systematically measure the level of regional digital econ-omy and constructs a GMM panel data model based on instrumental variables.Meanwhile,we introduce the form of gravity model to design a novel instrumental variable by integrating fixed terms and time-varying terms exogenous variables,providing an innovative idea for constructing instrumental variables combining the model form and variable exogeneity.Based on the theory of ICE,we examine the mechanism of digital economy affecting carbon emissions in logistics indus-try.The conclusions are as follows:There exists a significant positive correlat① ion between the development level of the digital economy and logistics industrial carbon emissions during 2010-2019,which indicates a stronger ICE compares LEE in logistics industry;The positive conne② c-tion is robust after a series of robustness tests,including replacement of the core variables,adoption of heterogeneity analysis,and decomposition of digital economy dimensions;The ③factor allocative efficiency and energy efficiency of the industry have significantly adjusted the LEE from digital economy,while the increase in demand scale and urban consumption logistics demand significantly moderates the ICE.We argue that,to reduce industrial carbon emission,government needs to implement differentiated strategies according to industrial ICE and IEE.
Digital EconomyIndustry Carbon EmissionsLogistics IndustryGravity Model
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