Technical Barriers to Trade and Expansion of Export Margins:A Research from the Perspective of Ternary Margins
This paper conducts an in-depth study of the mechanism and heterogeneity effect of Technical Barriers to Trade(TBT)on ternary margins of export from a global perspective.It utilizes the extended gravity model and two-stage least squares estimation technique(IV-2SLS).By analyzing TBT notifications from 68 countries and trade data reported in six-digit HS codes from 2000 to 2018,the paper calculates the coverage ratio of all these notifica-tions at the four-digit level.This paper also decomposes the trade share of 133 exporting countries to ternary margins following the decomposition methodology initially proposed by Hummels and Klenow.The empirical results suggest that TBT have a significantly positive impact on the share of trade retained by exporters,which is mainly driven by an increase in the extensive margin and quantity index,while the price index is somewhat restricted.Fur-ther analysis reveals the existence of spillover effects by showing that the adjustment of ter-nary margins brought about by the adoption of TBT can be observed not only on notified products themselves but also among related products.With expanded analysis,we explore that the expansionary effect of TBT on ternary margins differ by industry and country.Con-cerning exporters,our results indicate a significant weakening of the promotional effect in countries with higher per capita income or greater government effectiveness.Finally,we analyze the heterogeneous impact of TBT with respect to the year in which the notifications were adopted and find that the positive effect was primarily observed in the years preceding 2008.Conclusions drawn in this paper provide valuable insights for China in the new era to(ⅰ)establish and optimize a system of actively responding to TBT,(ⅱ)evaluate the effects of relevant policies more scientifically,and thus(ⅲ)promote high-standard opening-up and stable growth in exports by providing important empirical evidence and policy recommenda-tions.
Technical Barriers to TradeTernary MarginsReversed Transmission Mecha-nismExpansionary Effect
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