The Continuous Impact of Expectation on the Risk Resonance between Financial and Entity
Bases on data from January 2004 to March 2023,using smooth local projection model,this study empirically analyzes the continuous impulse impact on the risk resonance between financial and entity from four types of micro subject expectations,namely entre-preneurs,consumers,bankers,and investors.The moderate and policy effects are also analyzed.The main findings are as follows:Firstly,reduction of expectation indicators significantly exacerbates the risk resonance between financial and entity,the impact of en-trepreneurs and bankers'expectation last longer.Secondly,during periods of major events,especially when major events overlap with economic downturns,the weakening of expecta-tion has a stronger negative impact on risk resonance between financial and entity.Thirdly,during the economic downturn cycle from 2020 to 2023,loose tax based and expenditure based fiscal policies can suppress the negative impact of expectation weakening on the risk resonance between financial and entity,and their policy effect are better than monetary pol-icy and macro-prudential policy.According to the main conclusions,targeted policy rec-ommendations are proposed to prevent the negative externality risk of expectation weaken-ing.
万方数据
维普
