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川滇地区工程场外道路地震风险评估研究

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水利水电工程场外道路的地震风险判定,对工程项目实施进度起着重要作用.本文中以川滇地区工程场外道路为研究对象,采用模糊集合理论和判断矩阵法,建立地质环境和地震危险性两大因子破坏的综合评估数学模型,分析37个地州市遭受地震后道路破坏情况的可能性.分析表明:川滇地区工程场外道路遭受地震中等破坏的可能性较大,且位于四川的工程场外道路遭受到地震风险破坏的指数高于云南地区的地震风险评估值.
STUDY ON SEISMIC RISK OF OFF-SITE ROADS IN SICHUAN AND YUNNAN AREA
The seismic risk assessment of off-site roads in water conservancy and hydropower projects plays an important role in the implementation progress of the project.Road outside the engineering field in Sichuan-Yunnan area is taken as the research object,and the fuzzy set theory and the judg-ment matrix method are used to establish a comprehensive evaluation mathematical model of the damage of the two major factors of geological environment and seismic risk,and to analyze the possi-bility of road damage after the earthquake in 37 prefectures and cities.The analysis shows that the road outside the project site in Sichuan-Yunnan area is more likely to suffer from moderate earth-quake damage,and the index of earthquake risk damage to the road outside the project site in Si-chuan is higher than the earthquake risk assessment value in Yunnan.

Earthquake risk assessmentFuzzy setJudgment matrixSeismic hazard

李垠、魏贵春、陈星宇、张萍、吕筱、刘全

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湖北省地震局,地震预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉 430071

海南省地震局,海南海口 570203

武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉 430071

地震风险评估 模糊集合 判断矩阵 地震危险性

中国地震局地震应急青年重点任务

CEA_EDEM-2022

2024

内陆地震
新疆维吾尔自治区地震局

内陆地震

影响因子:0.495
ISSN:1001-8956
年,卷(期):2024.38(3)
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