ANOMALIES OF COMPREHENSIVE PREDICTION SCHEMES IN WESTERN YUNNAN AND YUNNAN BEFORE YANGBI MS6.4 EARTHQUAKE IN 2021
Before the M6.4 earthquake inYangbi,Yunnan on May 21,2021,the comprehensive probability values of the comprehensive prediction scheme of the MS ≥5.0 earthquake in western Yunnan and the comprehensive probability values of the comprehensive prediction scheme of the MS≥6.0 earthquake in Yunnan breaking through the prediction threshold on January 28,2021 and March 17,2021 respectively,reaching the medium-term prediction index and meeting the first con-ditions of the prediction.Mercury and solid carbon dioxide in Xiaguan have also breaking through the forecast threshold,and the necessary conditions have been met.According to the hierarchical early warning model,the comprehensive prediction scheme of MS ≥5.0 earthquake in western Yun-nan and the comprehensive prediction scheme of MS≥6.0 earthquake in Yunnan have the conditions for short-term prediction on January 28,2021 and March 17,2021 respectively.Yangbi MS6.4 earthquake occurred on May 21,2021 after 3.8 months and 2.1 months respectively.When both comprehensive schemes reach the short-term prediction index,the risk of MS≥6.0 strong earth-quake in western Yunnan is enhanced.
Western YunnanMS≥5.0YunnanMS≥6.0Comprehensive prediction scheme
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