首页|基于组合模型的农村环境污染治理成本预测研究

基于组合模型的农村环境污染治理成本预测研究

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针对环境治理过程中存在的资金浪费、成本缺乏合理规划等问题,提出基于组合模型的农村环境污染治理成本预测研究.从资源使用、环境破坏、环境治理三方面确立成本核算体系,优化成本函数;利用前窥式神经网络设定不同训练规则,分析污染治理过程中投入与产出的关系;使用大量随时间变化的数据建立差分自回归平均模型,结合过去值与过去误差,获得变量未来值;设计小波神经网络学习过程,引入尺度与平移因子,计算每个连接层权重,经过反复学习,确保预测误差最小;整合两个模型预测结果,运算单一模型权重,输出最终成本预测值.在实际区域的实验表明,所提组合模型不仅能够准确预测单项指标的治理成本,还能从长期角度出发,提高整体成本预测精度.
Prediction of rural environmental pollution control cost based on combination model
Aiming at the problems of waste of funds and lack of reasonable cost planning in the process of environ-mental governance,a study on the prediction of rural environmental pollution governance cost based on combination model is proposed.Establish the cost accounting system and optimize the cost function from three aspects:resource use,environmental damage and environmental governance;The relationship between input and output in the process of pollution control is analyzed by setting different training rules using forward looking neural network;A large num-ber of time-varying data are used to establish a differential autoregressive average model,and the future value of the variable is obtained by combining the past value and the past error;The learning process of wavelet neural network is designed,the scale and translation factors are introduced,and the weight of each connection layer is calculated.After repeated learning,the prediction error is minimized;The first mock exam is based on two models,and the single mod-el weight is calculated to output the final cost prediction value.Experiments in real areas show that the proposed com-bined model can not only accurately predict the governance cost of single index,but also improve the overall cost pre-diction accuracy from a long-term perspective.

Combination modelWavelet neural networkRural environmental pollutionGovernance costsIn-put and output

刘刚

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临沂市生态环境局沂水县分局,山东 临沂 276400

组合模型 小波神经网络 农村环境污染 治理成本 投入与产出

2024

环境与发展
内蒙古自治区环境科学研究院,内蒙古环境检测中心站

环境与发展

影响因子:0.326
ISSN:1007-0370
年,卷(期):2024.36(6)