首页|基于系统多层次灰色模型的洪灾风险综合评价方法——以鄱阳湖流域为例

基于系统多层次灰色模型的洪灾风险综合评价方法——以鄱阳湖流域为例

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洪水灾害风险评价是一个多因素协同影响效应的系统过程.在分析洪水风险系统的基础上,并从洪水风险评估的角度,综合考虑了致灾因子,孕灾环境和承灾体的相关因素,构建了洪水灾害风险综合评价体系,融合灰色聚类法与层次分析的数据处理优势,提出了适应洪水灾害风险预测的系统多层次灰色综合评价方法.以鄱阳湖流域为例,通过定性与定量分析相结合,对鄱阳湖流域洪水风险系统进行了综合评价,为流域内洪水灾害风险综合评价提供了参考依据.
Comprehensive evaluation method of flood risk based on multi-level gray system model——a case study in Poyang Lake Basin
Flood risk assessment is a systematic process with the synergy effects between multiple factors.Based on the analysis of flood risk system,a comprehensive flood risk assessment system was constructed in consideration of the factors including the disaster-inducing factors,disaster-inducing environment,and disaster bearing body from the perspective of flood risk evaluation.The data processing advantages of gray clustering method and analytical hierarchy process(AHP) were integrated and a comprehensive evaluation method of multi-level gray system was proposed to adapt the flood disaster risk prediction.The method was applied in the Poyang Lake Basin.The combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis of the flood risk system in the Poyang Lake Basin can provide reference for the comprehensive evaluation of flood risk in the basin.

flood disaster riskcomprehensive evaluationAHPgray clustering methodqualitativequantitativePoyang Lake Basin

徐镇凯、黄海鹏、魏博文、刘成林

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南昌大学建筑工程学院,南昌330031

洪水风险 综合评价 层次分析 灰色聚类法 定性 定量 鄱阳湖流域

国家自然科学基金

41261053

2015

南水北调与水利科技(中英文)
河北省水利科学研究院

南水北调与水利科技(中英文)

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.772
ISSN:2096-8086
年,卷(期):2015.13(1)
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