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基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的蓄滞洪区可持续发展评价

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基于生态系统服务价值理论,对蓄滞洪区生态系统的气候调节价值、水质净化价值、空气净化价值、土壤保持价值、碳固定价值、生物多样性价值和科研教育价值7个方面进行生态服务价值评估,采用替代成本法、成果参数法等核算方法对各项生态服务功能进行价值核算。通过评估生态系统服务价值,将生态效益纳入可持续发展评价体系,系统构建能够有效反映经济资源子系统、防洪子系统、生态功能子系统之间相互作用与制约关系的蓄滞洪区可持续发展评价指标体系。此外,构建模糊综合评价模型进行现状评价和情景预测。结果表明:2个蓄滞洪区现阶段可持续发展评价为一般。在调整种植结构、土地利用方式、打造特色养殖模式等方式的情景下,区域可持续发展水平较好。研究能为蓄滞洪区的生态效益量化评价和可持续发展提供参考。
Evaluation of sustainable development of flood storage area based on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
Huangcaoweis are national-level storage and detention zones in the Chu River basin.The two regions serve a dual function for flood control by retaining excess water and ensuring the survival and development of local residents by water supply.The reality of a growing population and limited land has given rise to a multifaceted role for flood storage areas in China,encompassing flood control and development.In addition,the flood storage area also possesses ecological functions such as climate regulation,which bestows unique ecological service functions and economic value.Therefore,we should correctly deal with the relationship between flood control,development and ecological environmental protection in these regions,maintain and maximize the functions and benefits of the flood storage area,putting flood storage areas on a gradual path to sustainable use.Taking these two flood storage areas as case studies,an assessment of their ecological service value is conducted,mainly including values of climate regulation,water purification,air purification,soil conservation,carbon fixation,biodiversity and scientific research and education.Various accounting methods,including the alternative cost method and outcome parameter method,are applied to evaluate the value of each service.Accurate quantification of the ecosystem's service value facilitates the integration of ecological benefits into the economic and social development evaluation system.On the basis of calculating the value of regional ecosystem services,evaluation indicators are constructed for the sustainable development of flood storage and detention areas from three aspects:flood prevention,economic and ecological functions.The sustainable development level of flood storage and detention areas are evaluated by AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,incorporating weights assigned by the AHP method and comprehensive evaluation is made by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.According to the evaluation results,the relationship between flood control,economy and ecology is coordinated to maximize the comprehensive benefits of various functions of the flood storage area and realize the sustainable development of the flood storage area.Meanwhile,scenario analysis and development prediction for the future state of the flood storage area are carried out to provide a reference for the quantitative evaluation of ecological benefits and sustainable development of the flood storage area.The results show that the sustainable development level of the Huangcaoweis are general,which basically accords with the development pattern in the polder area.A reduction in the ecological function of farmland and wetlands at the current stage of flood storage area development would lower its sustainability.Conversely,if the flood storage area shifts toward farmland ecological transformation and expansion of wetland areas,its sustainable development level could surpass the current stage.Finally,the challenges encountered during the sustainable development process are addresses in the two flood storage areas and proposes corresponding suggestions and countermeasures.To alleviate issues related to regional water withdrawal challenges,it is recommended to expedite water withdrawal through drainage ditch dredging and drainage station construction.For this kind of flood storage area where agricultural development takes precedence,adjustments to the crop planting structure are suggested,planting crops with high economic value and good water resistance to optimize and adjust the land use mode in the flood storage area,and to reduce the flood disaster losses.Leveraging the region's advantages,an emphasis on ecological farming is encouraged to establish a distinctive farming model.Developing ecological wetlands and agricultural sightseeing projects according to local conditions,the region's vital ecological role can be maximized,and striving to achieve sustainable development of the region.

flood storage areasustainable developmentecological value accountingindicator systemfuzzy comprehensive evaluation

姬金雪、王乐、要威、刘勇、王宇晖

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东华大学环境科学与工程学院,上海 201620

长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,武汉 430010

南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,南京 210029

蓄滞洪区 可持续发展 生态价值核算 指标体系 模糊综合评价

国家重点研发计划

2021YFC3000102

2024

南水北调与水利科技(中英文)
河北省水利科学研究院

南水北调与水利科技(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.772
ISSN:2096-8086
年,卷(期):2024.22(2)
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