摘要
以引江济淮工程(河南段)为例,在确定安全-进度-投资系统风险评价指标体系的基础上,基于层次分析-模糊综合评价方法分析安全、进度、投资的单项风险;在考虑工程建设期安全、进度、投资的相互影响后,基于改进的综合风险评价方法分析安全-进度-投资系统风险.结果表明:当分析单项风险时,安全、进度和投资风险的评价结果均为一般风险;当分析系统风险时,得到安全风险＞进度风险＞投资风险;进一步分析指标体系中的准则层和指标层,安全风险的现场风险中施工技术方案风险排序第一,是后续风险管控的重点.本研究为提高工程建设期安全-进度-投资系统风险的可靠性、降低风险事件的发生提出了理论和技术参考.
Abstract
Water diversion project is an important measure to solve the uneven distribution of regional water resources,and effectively improve the ability of regional water security.Analyzing and evaluating the risks during the construction is of great importance for the project management.The risks during the construction of a water diversion project can be summarized as safety risks,progress risks,and investment risks.Considering only a single risk is not conducive to the overall management of the project,and it needs a comprehensive analysis of the project's systemic risk.The Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project(Henan section)aims to supply water to urban and rural residents and improve the environment.This project is a long-distance water diversion project with a complex and changeable environment,along which there are many kinds of crossing structures such as roads and rivers.Some buildings are complicated in structure and difficult to construct.It is necessary to carry out a risk analysis of safety,progress,and investment system during the construction period for the Henan section to improve the safety and reliability of this project.Many factors affect the risk of safety,progress,and investment system,and there are mutual influences among these factors.Establishing a comprehensive index system for risk evaluation is the key to systemic risk analysis.Based on the established risk evaluation index system,the LEC method was used to evaluate the safety risk during the construction period,and the risk matrix method was used to evaluate the progress risk and investment risk.The results of risk evaluation for the single risk of safety,progress,and investment were obtained based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment method.This process was divided into two steps:After the index matrix passed the consistency test,the analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weight of each index and the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method was used to determine membership function.When analyzing safety,progress,and investment systemic risk,it was found that the statistical dimension of safety risk was inconsistent with the progress and investment risks.Therefore,this study proposed an improved comprehensive risk assessment method to analyze the comprehensive risks of safety,progress,and investment systems.The results showed that the evaluation results of single risk for safety,progress,and investment were 84.7,0.806,and 0.802,respectively.All of the evaluation results were general.Because of the various approaches used,the resulting data had inconsistencies in statistical dimensions.Consequently,the results of the single risk assessment had to be normalized.Following that,the enhanced safety risk was 0.058,the enhanced progress risk was 0.012,and the improved investment risk was 0.006.The safety,progress,and investment systemic risks were the highest,commensurate with the project's real risk condition.Further analysis of the criterion layer and index layer in the index system showed that the risks of construction technology and scheme ranked first among the safety risks,which was the focus of subsequent risk management and control.The risks of lack of personnel cognition and the maintenance of equipment among the safety risks ranked second and third,respectively.As can be observed,the greatest impact on the construction of this project was the safety risk.Among the investment risks,the risk of erroneous project information was the lowest.This study provided theoretical and technical references to improve the reliability of the systemic risk and reduce the occurrence of risk events during the construction period for the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project(Henan section).
基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3000202)
湖北省自然科学基金会青年项目(2022CFB573)
引江济淮工程(河南段)工程科研服务项目(HNYJJH/JS/FWKY-2021004)
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据