基于ARMA模型的城乡居民收入差距预测分析——以安徽省为例
Forecast Analysis of Urban-Rural Residents'Income Gap Based on ARMA Model—Taking Anhui Province as an Example
刘炯 1周敏 1伍燕1
作者信息
- 1. 宣城职业技术学院 旅游商贸系,安徽 宣城 242000
- 折叠
摘要
ARMA模型是当前普遍应用的时间序列建模方法之一.选取安徽省 1980-2020 年的城乡居民收入差距数据为样本,借助EVIEWS9.0 软件,针对绝对收入差距与相对收入差距先后构建ARIMA((1,4),1,0)与ARMA(1,3)模型,两个模型的样本内静态预测结果均较好.分别利用所建立的两个模型,样本外动态预测 2021-2023 年安徽省城乡居民绝对收入差距依次为 23 756.7 元、24 846.8 元与 26 094.6 元,相对收入差距依次为 2.563 078 元、2.563 116 元与 2.563 147 元,以期为相关部门制定政策提供数据支持.
Abstract
ARMA model is one of the commonly used time series modeling methods presently.The urban-rural residents'income gap in Anhui Province from 1980 to 2020 is selected as a sample,and with the help of EVIEWS9.0 software,ARIMA((1,4),1,0)and ARMA(1,3)models are successively constructed for the absolute income gap and the relative income gap,and the in-sample static prediction results of the two models are better.Using the two models established respectively,the out-of-sample dynamics predicts that the absolute income gap between urban and rural residents in Anhui Province in 2021-2023 will be 23,756.7,24,846.8 and 26,094.6 Yuan in turn,and the relative income gap will be 2.5630 78,2.563 116 and 2.563 147 in turn,with a view to providing data support for the relevant departments to formulate policies.
关键词
ARMA模型/城镇居民收入/农村居民收入/差距/预测Key words
ARMA model/urban residents'income/rural residents'income/gap/forecasting引用本文复制引用
基金项目
安徽省高校人文社会科学研究重点资助项目(SK2021A0991)
宣城职业技术学院人文社会科学研究项目(SK202201)
宣城职业技术学院人文社会科学研究项目(ZXTS202103)
宣城职业技术学院人文社会科学研究项目(ZXTS202105)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据