Forecast Analysis of Urban-Rural Residents'Income Gap Based on ARMA Model—Taking Anhui Province as an Example
ARMA model is one of the commonly used time series modeling methods presently.The urban-rural residents'income gap in Anhui Province from 1980 to 2020 is selected as a sample,and with the help of EVIEWS9.0 software,ARIMA((1,4),1,0)and ARMA(1,3)models are successively constructed for the absolute income gap and the relative income gap,and the in-sample static prediction results of the two models are better.Using the two models established respectively,the out-of-sample dynamics predicts that the absolute income gap between urban and rural residents in Anhui Province in 2021-2023 will be 23,756.7,24,846.8 and 26,094.6 Yuan in turn,and the relative income gap will be 2.5630 78,2.563 116 and 2.563 147 in turn,with a view to providing data support for the relevant departments to formulate policies.
ARMA modelurban residents'incomerural residents'incomegapforecasting
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
