Prediction of Industrial Water Consumption in Ningxia Based on GM-LSSVR
Accurate prediction of future industrial water consumption is of great significance for Ningxia's industrial development planning and sustainable economic and social development.The GM-LSSVR combination model based on HP filter decomposition can overcome the limitations of using a single prediction model and improve prediction accuracy.Based on data from 2004 to 2021 on industrial water consumption,economic indicators,comprehensive physical quantity index,industrial physical quantity index and other related data in Ningxia,the main influencing factors of industrial water consumption are identified using grey correlation analysis and Pearson correlation analysis.On this basis,the combined model is employed to predict Ningxia's future industrial water consumption,and the accuracy and rationality of the forecast results are analyzed.The results indicate that the proportion of manufacturing value added to total industrial value added,total energy consumption,thermal power generation,diesel consumption,natural gas consumption,and electricity consumption are the main factors affecting the industrial water consumption in Ningxia.The GM-LSSVR combination model based on HP filter decomposition demonstrates good applicability and prediction performance in forecasting industrial water consumption in Ningxia.The model predicts that industrial water consumption in Ningxia will reach 453 million m3 in 2025.
industrial water consumptionwater use forecastinggrey modelLSSVRHP filter decomposition
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