Research on Predicting the Burden of Glaucoma in China Based on ARIMA Model
Objective To describe and analyze the disease burden of glaucoma in China from 1990 to 2019 and its changing trend,and to predict the disease burden of glaucoma in China from 2020 to 2050.Methods In the data on the disease burden indicators of glaucoma in China from 1990 to 2019,including prevalence,YLD rate and DALYs rate,were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,and an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was established.Subsequently,the disease burden of glaucoma in China from 2020 to 2050 was predicted by using the ARIMA model.Results From 1990 to 2019,the prevalence of glaucoma in China across all age groups increased from 49.26/105 to 94.08/105,with an average annual growth rate of 3.03％.The annual growth rates of glaucoma prevalence in males and females were 2.63％and 3.47％,respectively.The years lost due to disability(YLD)rate and disability adjusted life year(DALYs)rate of glaucoma in China across all age groups increased from 5.68/105 to 7.91/105,with an average annual change rate of 1.31％.The YLD rate and DALYs rate of glaucoma in males and females showed an increasing trend,increasing by 1.01％and 1.69％per year on average,respectively.The results predicted by the ARIMA model showed that the dynamic trend was basically the same as the actual burden of glaucoma,and the relative error and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),decomposition of the mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)were all very small,and the prediction results were accurate.The results of the study showed that after being predicted by the ARIMA model,the prevalence of glaucoma in China in 2020 was 128.70/105,the YLD rate was 10.63/105,and the DALYs rate was 10.63/105.Meanwhile,the prevalence of glaucoma in China in 2050 was predicted to be 942.17/105,with a YLD rate of 10.87/105 and a DALYs rate of 10.87/105.Conclusion This study shows that the ARIMA model has good fitting effect and accuracy in the application of simulating the disease burden of glaucoma in China,which can provide reference for the prediction of glaucoma disease burden.The results of this model show that the disease burden of glaucoma in China is on the rise from 2020 to 2050.
万方数据
维普
