Epidemiological Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Syphilis in Yinchuan from 2015 to 2022
Objective To analyze the incidence and prevalence of syphilis in Yinchuan from 2015 to 2022 and predict the incidence trend,thus providing a reference for scientific formulation of prevention and control measures of public interest.Methods Descriptive analysis was used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of syphilis in Yinchuan from 2015 to 2022,and Grey Model(GM)(1,1)was used to forecast the incidence trend of syphilis.Results 9455 syphilis cases were reported in Yinchuan from 2015 to 2022 with an average annual incidence of 49.74/100000.The annual report of incidence rate showed a trend of first rising and then falling.Most cases were latent syphilis(8039,42.29/100000).Syphilis was reported all year around,with no obvious seasonality.The incidence was highest in Helan County(65.04/100000)and the lowest in Xixia district(37.32/100000).The incidence in males was lower than that in females,with an reported ratio 1∶1.12.Cases contain allage groups,mainlyfor people aged 50 and above(4640,102.80/100000).Most cases were household,unemployed workers(3330,35.22%),farmers(2589,27.38%)and retired workers(1003,10.61%).The annual incidence of syphilis predicted by Grey Model(GM)(1,1)from 2022 to 2025 was 29.27/100000(the actual reported incidence rate is 29.94/100000),29.59/100000,27.13/100000 and 24.07/100000 respectively.Conclusion The incidence rate of syphilis in elderly people aged 50 years and above in Yinchuan from 2015 to 2022 showed the tendency of going up firstly and going down secondly.The incidence was higher in females than in males.The majority of the patients were latent syphilis,and most of them were unemployed workers and farmers.Therefore,we should pay more attention to strengthening syphilis counseling and improve the testing and screening ability in key populations and regions.And it is also imperative to enhance the integration of medical care and prevention,pay attention to"four groups"of people,implement"five early"measures,raise public awareness of disease prevention,and control the transmission and spread of syphilis.
万方数据
维普
