首页|择期手术患者术后恶心呕吐危险因素分析及临床预测模型构建

择期手术患者术后恶心呕吐危险因素分析及临床预测模型构建

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目的 探讨择期手术术后恶心呕吐(PONV)的危险因素,建立预测择期手术PONV发生的临床列线图模型.方法 收集1 093例择期手术患者的临床资料,通过单因素分析和多因素回归得出PONV发生的独立危险因素,并将危险因素通过R语言绘制列线图.对临床预测模型进行Bootstrap内部验证与校正,诊断效能使用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)评价.结果 133例患者出现PONV,发生率为12.2%.女性(OR=2.070,95%CI:1.143~3.747)、晕动病史或 PONV 史(OR=60.760,95%CI:31.661~116.604)、术中低血压(OR=10.533,95%CI:5.182~21.411)、术后使用阿片类药物(OR=2.903,95%CI:1.667~5.056)、术后 VAS 评分>3 分(OR=11.610,95%CI:6.362~22.221)是择期手术PONV发生的独立危险因素.ROC曲线下面积为0.922(95%CI:0.904~0.937),灵敏度为89.5%,特异度为84.2%,提示模型区分度良好.列线图模型内部验证校准曲线显示预测值与实测值曲线重合度良好.结论 择期手术PONV发生的独立危险因素有女性、晕动病史或PONV史、术中低血压、术后使用阿片类药物以及术后VAS评分>3分.通过以上危险因素绘制的临床列线图预测模型区分度较好.
Analysis of risk factors for postoperative nausea and vomiting in patients undergoing elective surgery and establishment of clinical prediction model
Objective To investigate the risk factors of postoperative nausea and vomiting(PONV)after elective surgery,and establish a nomogram model for predicting PONV.Methods The clinical data of 1093 patients undergoing elective surgery were collect-ed,and independent risk factors were obtained through single and multi-factor Logistic regression analysis.The nomogram prediction model was constructed by using R language,and the model was internally verified and the diagnostic efficacy of the model was evaluated by making correction curve and receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC).Results PONV occurred in 133 patients(12.2%).Female(OR=2.070,95%CI1.14~3.747),history of motion sickness or PONV(OR=60.760,95%CI31.661~116.604),intraop-erative hypotension(OR=10.533,95%CI5.182~21.411),postoperative use of opioids(OR=2.903,95%CI 1.667~5.056),VAS>3(OR=11.61,95%CI6.362~22.221)were independent risk factors for PONV.The area under ROC curve was 0.922(95%CI 0.904~0.937),the sensitivity was 89.5%,and the specificity was 84.2%.The calibration curve of the internal verification of the no-mogram model showed a good coincidence between the predicted value and the measured value.Conclusion Female,history of motion sickness or PONV,intraoperative hypotension,postoperative use of opioids,VAS>3 are independent risk factors for PONV in elective surgery.The nomogram model has good clinical application value in predicting the occurrence of PONV.

Postoperative nausea and vomitingRisk factorsRegression analysisClinical prediction modelNomogram

刘昕、朱小宁、田碧芸、李艳、顾英花、叶青山

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宁夏回族自治区人民医院麻醉科,宁夏银川 750002

术后恶心呕吐 危险因素 回归分析 临床预测模型 列线图

宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划宁夏回族自治区人民医院培育振兴科研项目

2022BEG03114202012

2024

宁夏医学杂志
中华医学会宁夏分会

宁夏医学杂志

影响因子:0.706
ISSN:1001-5949
年,卷(期):2024.46(5)
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