首页|基于双重差分法的宁夏大气PM2.5长期暴露对呼吸系统疾病死亡影响的研究

基于双重差分法的宁夏大气PM2.5长期暴露对呼吸系统疾病死亡影响的研究

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目的 了解宁夏2010-2015年呼吸系统疾病死亡情况和PM2.5的分布状况,探讨宁夏大气PM2.5长期暴露对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响.方法 收集2010-2015年宁夏居民死亡监测数据,各街道、乡镇大气PM2.5年均浓度以及气象、人口、地理信息等相关资料.采用改良的双重差分设计(广义非线性模型拟合),分析大气PM2.5长期暴露对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响.结果 在呼吸系统疾病死亡人群中,男性占比55.36%,女性比占44.63%;64岁及以下组占比14.21%,65岁及以上组占比85.79%;大气PM2.5浓度每升高1 μg/m3,对呼吸系统疾病和下呼吸道疾病死亡的OR值及95%置信区间(CI)分别为1.03(1.02~1.04)、1.03(1.02~1.05).分层分析结果显示,大气PM2.5浓度每升高1 μg/m3,对男性和女性呼吸系统疾病死亡的OR及95%CI分别为1.03(1.02~1.04)和1.03(1.02~1.05);对年龄≤64岁及年龄≥65岁组呼吸系统疾病死亡的OR及95%CI分别为1.02(0.99~1.05)和1.03(1.02~1.04).结论 宁夏地区大气PM2.5长期暴露增加人群呼吸系统疾病、下呼吸道疾病死亡的风险,男性和女性均为敏感人群,年龄≥65岁组人群更加敏感.
Study on the effect of long-term exposure to atmospheric PM2.5 on death of respiratory diseases in Ningxia based on difference-difference method
Objective To investigate the mortality of respiratory diseases and the distribution of PM2.5 in Ningxia from 2010 to 2015,and to explore the effect of long-term exposure of PM2 5 on the mortality of residents from respiratory diseases in Ningxia.Methods The death monitoring data of Ningxia residents,the average daily concentration of PM2.5 in each street and township,and the related data of meteorological,population and geographic information in Ningxia from 2010 to 2015 were collected.A modified difference-difference design(generalized nonlinear model fitting)was used to analyze the effect of long-term exposure to atmospheric PM2 5 on mortality from respiratory diseases.Results 55.36%of males and 44.63%of females died of respiratory diseases.The group aged 64 years old and below accounted for 14.21%,65 years old and above accounted for 85.79%;The OR values and 95%confidence intervals(CI)for mortality from respiratory and lower respiratory diseases were 1.03(1.02~1.04)and 1.03(1.02~1.05)for each increase of atmospheric PM2 5 concentration by 1μg/m3,respectively.The results showed that the OR and 95%CI of male and female respiratory deaths were 1.03(1.02~1.04)and 1.03(1.02~1.05)for every increase of atmospheric PM2 5 concentration of 1 μg/m3 1 μg/m.That's right.The OR and 95%CI of death from respiratory diseases were 1.02(0.99~1.05)and 1.03(1.02~1.04),respectively,in the 64 and ≥65 age groups.Conclusion Long-term exposure to PM2 5 can increase the risk of respiratory diseases and death from lower respiratory diseases in Ningxia.Both men and women are susceptible to PM2.5,group ≥ 65 years old is more susceptible.

Fine particulate matterRespiratory diseasesDeathDifference in differenceGeneralized nonlinear model

石运昊、张银娥、王金霞、王栋帅、董学昊、张亚娟

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宁夏医科大学公共卫生学院,宁夏银川 750004

宁夏回族自治区疾病预防控制中心,宁夏银川 750004

细颗粒物 呼吸系统疾病 死亡 双重差分设计 广义非线性模型

宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金

2022AAC03142

2024

宁夏医学杂志
中华医学会宁夏分会

宁夏医学杂志

影响因子:0.706
ISSN:1001-5949
年,卷(期):2024.46(5)
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