Application of the nomogram risk assessment model in patients with COPD complicated pulmonary embolism
Objective To explore the risk prediction factors and their quantification methods in patients with Chronic Obstruc-tive Pulmonary Disease(COPD)complicated Pulmonary Embolism(PE).Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 96 pa-tients diagnosed with COPD complicated by PE(PE group),96 patients with COPD without PE(non-PE group)treated in the same period were selected for comparison.General data were collected included gender,age,smoking history,comorbidities,as well as clinical indicators such as arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure(PaCO2),oxygen partial pressure(PaO2),N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP),D-dimer,serum hemoglobin(Hb),and albumin(Alb)levels.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to explore the factors related to COPD complicated by PE,and a nomogram risk assessment model was constructed and its fit verified.Results Univariate analysis indicated significant differences between the two groups in terms of bedridden≥7 days,ac-companying venous thrombosis,COPD classification,PaO2,D-dimer,NT-proBNP,and Alb levels(P<0.05).Logistic regressionanal-ysis showed that bedridden≥7 days,COPD classification,D-dimer,and NT-proBNP were independent risk factors for COPD compli-cated by PE.The risk of developing PE in COPD patients increases with longer bed rest,higher COPD classification,lower PaO2,higher D-dimer levels,and higher NT-proBNP levels.The validation of the model indicated that the calibration curve aligns well with the ideal curve.The AUC value of the model was 0.947,with a sensitivity of 87.5%and a specificity of 87.5%.Conclusion Prolonged bed rest,higher COPD classification,lower PaO2,higher D-dimer levels,and higher NT-proBNP levels are independent risk factors for COPD complicated by PE.The established nomogram model can effectively assess the risk of PE in patients with COPD.
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