Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land based on dynamic stability verification and CA-Markov prediction:a case study of Ganyu District
This study sought to clarify the importance of verifying the dynamic stability of cultivated land change and,on this basis,to predict cultivated land change in the"14th Five-Year Plan"target(2025)and long-term target years(2035)of Ganyu District.The aim was to provide reference data for relevant academic research and future cultivated land protection projects.The coefficient of variation of cultivated land,geographical concentration index,imbalance index,and trend analysis method were used.The dynamic stability of cultivated land change in Ganyu District was verified in three aspects:cultivated land quantity,spatial distribution,and spatial development trend.The future change in cultivated land under different policy scenarios was simulated by a CA-Markov model.The total amount of cultivated land in the Ganyu District continued to decline without major repetition or fluctuation.The spatial distribution of cultivated land was relatively balanced,and the spatial development trends of cultivated land occupation and supplementation were relatively continuous.On the whole,the changing process of cultivated land had high dynamic stability,consistent with the preconditions of the CA-Markov model.Under various policy scenarios,Ganyu District will still experience a rapid process of cultivated land conversion before 2025,and the rate of cultivated land reduction will slow by 2035.With regional advantages,the northern area of Ganyu District will be the key area of cultivated land conversion in the future,and cultivated land will gradually transfer to the southern inland area.Verifying the dynamic stability of cultivated land changes can effectively improve the simulation accuracy of the CA-Markov model.The future situation of cultivated land protection in Ganyu District is not optimistic.The relationship between economic development and cultivated land protection should be reasonably coordinated to ensure social,ecological,and food security.
cultivated land changedynamic stabilityCA-Markov modelspatiotemporal patternGanyu District
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