Simulation and prediction of spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem carbon storage in the Yangtze River basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model
The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems changes with the change of land utilization.Studying the impact of land use change on carbon storage and the temporal and spatial variation of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems is important for future land management decisions and ecosystem balance.Taking the Yangtze River basin as an example,based on the land use data of five periods from 1980 to 2020,the modified land use data were used in the PLUS model to simulate the land utilization spatial pattern from 2030 to 2050 under the three scenarios of SSP1-1.9,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5.Furthermore,the InVEST model was used to quantitatively evaluate the spatial changes of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in 2030-2050 under different SSP-RCP scenarios by using the modified carbon density.The results showed that the proportion of cultivated land area decreased by 1.12 percentage points from 1980 to 2020,and some of the cultivated lands were converted into forest land and construction land.The carbon storage of the Yangtze River basin decreased by 5.43× 107t in 2020 compared with 1980.The SSP series scenarios showed that the area of unused land resources decreased,while the area of unused land resources in the SSP1-1.9 scenario decreased by 9.12×105 hm2.However,the area of construction land increased in all three scenarios.From 2030 to 2050,carbon storage increased by 2.22×108t under the SSP1-1.9 scenario,but decreased under other scenarios;it decreased under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The Yangtze River basin should strengthen the efficient use of land and the construction of green infrastructure to improve the carbon sink capacity of the ecosystem in the basin.
land use changecarbon storageIn VEST modelPLUS modelYangtze River basinSSP-RCP scenario
万方数据
维普
