Review of Research on Risk Prevention and Control Models of Livestock and Poultry Diseases
Livestock and poultry diseases can cause losses to animal husbandry and related industries,cause zoonotic diseases,threaten public health security,and cause public panic.Effective risk prevention and control of livestock and poultry diseases is the key to solving such problems.At present,domestic research on risk prevention and control of livestock and poultry epidemics is relatively weak.This paper systematically organizes the research on livestock and poultry epidemic risk prevention and control by sorting out main livestock and poultry epidem-ic risk prevention and control models,and provides a scientific basis for subsequent research.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The livestock and poultry epidemiological model ini-tially only calculates the infection rate of the epidemic simply,and then takes into account the re-lationship between the influencing factors of the epidemic,and uses a statistical model to examine the complexity of the spread of the epidemic,then establishes a spatial model and simulation model of livestock and poultry diseases;(2)The livestock and poultry economics model can choose a cost-benefit model according to actual needs to simply calculate the profit and loss caused by the epidemic,or use a specified multiplier to estimate the economic impact of the epidemic on oth-er sectors according to the input-output model.The relationship between supply and demand and prices in some markets can also be investigated according to the equilibrium model,and the impact of livestock and poultry diseases on other commodity factors and industries can be analyzed ac-cording to the general equilibrium model;(3)A comprehensive model of livestock and poultry dis-eases based on the national or local agricultural sector economic model and traditional economic a-nalysis methods established,and incorporate the results of the epidemiological model into the eco-nomic analysis to solve the optimal epidemic prevention and control strategy or strategy combina-tion,and conduct strategy simulation;(4)The establishment of the livestock and poultry epidemic model needs to clarify the modeling conditions,establish a complete and accurate data information system,and model according to the actual situation.In the future,the livestock and poultry epi-demic model needs to consider the social impact of the epidemic by incorporating social ethics,public psychological expectations,and risk calculation,and continuously improve with the support of multidisciplinary tools.It can be seen that this paper systematizes the development of livestock and poultry epidemic model by combing the livestock and poultry epidemic model,livestock and poultry economic model and comprehensive model,and provides a theoretical basis for the preven-tion and control of major livestock and poultry epidemic risks in our country.
Livestock and poultry diseasesEpidemiological modelEpidemic-economics in-tegrated model
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