A Study of the Asymmetric Impact of Crude Oil Prices on Agricultural Prices in China
The impact of crude oil prices on Chinese agricultural prices has been the subject of widespread attention.This paper utilizes monthly international crude oil price and Chinese agri-cultural price data from January 2000 to March 2021 and introduces a novel method of oil price decomposition to break down international crude oil price shocks into supply shocks,demand shocks,and risk shocks.Subsequently,it examines the asymmetric impact of these three structural shocks on Chinese agricultural prices using a multiple-threshold nonlinear autoregressive distribu-ted lag model.The results of the analysis reveal that,in the decomposition of international crude oil price shocks since 2000,the impact of different types of shocks on agricultural product prices is heterogeneous.Supply shocks and risk shocks have asymmetric effects on wheat,corn,and soybean,with the impact on soybean being the most significant.Among them,the impact of supply shocks on soybean is mainly reflected in the short term,and both the short-term and long-term effects of risk shocks exist.The impact of supply shock on wheat is short-term,while the impact of risk shock on corn is long-term.Additionally,the overall impact of oil price and demand impact have no asymmetric impact on all agricultural products in the sample.Overall,this paper contrib-utes to the literature by introducing a new method of oil price decomposition and exploring the asymmetric impact of different structural shocks on Chinese agricultural prices.The findings shed light on the dynamics of the relationship between crude oil prices and agricultural prices,providing valuable insights for policymakers and market participants.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
