The Heterogeneous Impacts of Epidemic Incidents and Network Public Opinion on Pork Price Fluctuations:Evidence from ASF and COVID-19
This study constructs an index of public opinion based on the data collected by Website Python while using the number of confirmed cases to measure epidemic incidents.On this basis,the Smooth Transition Regression(Stregress)model is applied to explore the short-term effects and threshold heterogeneity of the two kinds of epidemics and their network public opinion on the price transmission of the hog industry chain.Then,the SV-TVP-SVAR model is further applied to explore the long-term dynamic effects of the two kinds of epidemics and their network public opinion index on pork prices separately,as a way to focus on their heterogeneity.The results show that the impact effect of network public opinion on the price transmission of the hog industry chain is characterized by a threshold effect.The network public opinion of both epidemics has a mixed effect on pork prices with time-varying characteristics and intertemporal differences.Pork prices are less strongly impacted by network public opinion compared to epidemic events,but with greater volatility.The African swine fever epidemic has a greater impact on pork prices than the COVID-19 epidemic,and the impact of network public opinion is similar.
Epidemic incidentsNetwork public opinionHog marketPork price fluctuationHeterogeneity
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
