Study on the Reform of the Purchasing and Storage System,the Impact of Income Uncertainty and Stable Mechanism of Corn Production:Empirical Analysis Based on 247 Prefecture-level Cities in Main Corn Producing Areas
With the deepening of market-oriented reform of the purchasing and storage sys-tem,the impact of market risks on corn production gradually exhibits its significance.In recent years,a phenomenon that the market price of corn is rising but with a decline in the planting area even occurs frequently.Therefore,this paper uses the panel data of 247 prefecture-level cities in major corn producing areas from 2011 to 2021,constructs a DID model and an intermediary effect model,analyzes the mechanism of the reform of purchasing and storage system on corn production from the perspective of market risks,and explores the mechanism of how grain production under the marketization of purchasing and storage system remains stable.The results show that:(1)The reform of purchasing and storage system has an overall negative and significant impact on corn planting area,area ratio and investment,among which the planting area has been continuously re-duced after the reform,and its decline rate first decreases and then increases;(2)The reform has a considerable negative effect on corn production in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia,especially in regions from the second accumulated temperature zone to the fifth accumulated temperature zone in these two provinces.(3)The reform has aggravated income uncertainty,in terms of the increas-ing fluctuations in price,income and net profits,which therefore has led to the decrease in corn planting area.Among three factors,income fluctuation has the greatest influence.Therefore,it is recommended that government should focus on the revenue risk of corn production after the reform of the storage system,strive to promote the extension of the corn industrial chain downstream,ac-tively and orderly develop agricultural insurance,and enhance the risk identification and response capability of farmers,thereby ensuring stable corn production.
Reform of the purchasing and storage systemUncertain incomeDID modelIn-termediary effect model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
