基本公共服务如何影响农业转移人口定居意愿——基于城市劳动力需求冲击及房价异质性分析

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中文摘要：本文从成本收益视角构建基本公共服务影响农业转移人口定居意愿的两阶段理论模型，基于中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)2017-2018年数据和城市统计数据，实证分析了基本公共服务对农业转移人口定居意愿的影响及其影响机制，以及城市异质性下基本公共服务的定居效应差异。研究结果表明:(1)城市基本公共服务显著提高了农业转移人口的城市定居意愿，基本公共服务水平每增加1％，农业转移人口的定居意愿显著提高3。4％，意味着农业转移人口对基本公共服务改善的支付意愿约为309元;(2)经营性公共服务对农业转移人口的定居效应高于非经营性公共服务;(3)基本公共服务通过提高就业质量和社会保障间接提高了农业转移人口的定居意愿，其中就业质量发挥的间接效应更大;(4)基本公共服务对高劳动力需求冲击城市和低房价城市的农业转移人口具有显著的市民化效应。本文为以加快推进基本公共服务均等化为抓手，促进农业转移人口市民化提供了经验参考。

外文标题：How Does Basic Public Service Affect the Settlement Intention of Rural-urban Migrants:Based on the Heterogeneity of City Labor Demand Shock and Housing Prices

外文摘要：This paper constructs a two-stage theoretical model of the impact of basic public service on the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants from the perspective of cost and bene-fit.Based on the data of"2017 and 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)"and city-level statistical data,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of basic public service on the set-tlement intention of rural-urban migrants and investigates the underlying mechanisms,investigates the impact of heterogeneity public service on the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants,and then conducts a city-heterogeneity analysis.The results show that:(1)city basic public service can significantly enhance rural-urban migrants'settlement intention in cities,if the level of basic public service increases by 1％,the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants will increase by 3.4％,which means that rural-urban migrants'willingness to pay for the improvement of basic public services is about 309 Yuan.(2)The effect of operating public service on the settlement in-tention of rural-urban migrants is higher than that of non-operating public service.(3)The mechanism test results show that employment quality and social security of rural-urban migrants are the channels by which basic public service can improve the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants,and the indirect effect of employment quality is greater.(4)Basic public service signifi-cantly affects the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants in cities with higher labor demand shocks and lower housing prices.This study enriches the literature on the citizenization effect of basic public service and provides an empirical reference for promoting the citizenization of rural-urban migrants by accelerating the equalization of basic public services.

外文关键词：

Settlement intentionChina Migrants Dynamic SurveyOperating public serviceWillingness to payLabor demand shockEmployment quality

作者：

付明辉、刘传江、董延芳

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作者单位：

广东金融学院保险学院广州 510521

南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院南京 211106

武汉大学经济发展研究中心武汉 430072

关键词：

定居意愿 CMDS 经营性公共服务支付意愿劳动力需求冲击就业质量

基金：

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目广东省基础与应用基础研究基金自然科学基金面上项目国家社科基金重点项目

项目编号：

22YJC7900272023A151501183719AJL014

出版年：

2024

农业技术经济

中国农业技术经济学会中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所

农业技术经济

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心

影响因子：1.923

ISSN：1000-6370

年,卷(期)：2024.(8)