Accurate assessment of the potential and underlying economic impact of China's forestry carbon sequestration growth is the key to developing a scientific carbon neutral action plan.On the basis of summarizing existing research about the potential of forestry carbon seques-tration growth in China,the key reasons for the differences in the assessment of forestry carbon se-questration growth potential are identified according to the meta-analysis method and the future potential of forestry carbon sequestration growth in China is re-predicted.Based on the modified dynamic CGE model,the impact of forestry carbon sequestration growth on China's economy is simulated and analyzed.The study shows that:(1)In the future,the space of forestry carbon se-questration growth in China is large.Comprehensively considering the scenarios of aboveground bi-omass carbon pool,underground biomass carbon pool and soil carbon pool,China's total forest carbon stocks and average annual forestry carbon sequestration increment will rise from 17.71 bil-lion tons of carbon and 937 million tons of CO2e/year in 2020 to 34.091 billion tons of carbon and 1.551 billion tons of CO2e/year in 2060.(2)Forestry carbon sequestration can help mitigate the economic costs of achieving carbon neutrality.With the expansion of the scale of forestry carbon sequestration growth,the cumulative decline of China's GDP in 2060 will be reduced from 4.19％to 2.01％,and the average decline of all industries will be decreased from 7.77％to 3.94％.(3)Forestry carbon sequestration growth can help reduce marginal costs and average e-mission reduction costs.In 2060,the carbon price will fall from 12,222 yuan to 863 yuan,and the marginal emission reduction cost will be reduced by 93％;the average emission reduction cost will decrease by 30％from 2,688 yuan to 1,882 yuan.(4)Based on the cost-benefit analysis,there is an optimal space for forestry carbon sequestration growth,which is between 2.5～3 billion tons in view of the analysis of average forestry carbon sequestration growth cost.Based on the research re-sults,it is proposed that the government should incorporate forestry carbon sequestration growth into the carbon neutral scheme as soon as possible and attach importance to the evaluation methods of forestry carbon sequestration growth and related policy research.Meanwhile,we suggest that the government should reasonably determine the development goals of forestry carbon seques-tration growth,and focus on the research and development of carbon emission reduction technology and its dynamic evolution.
维普
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