The Pattern Evolution and Influencing Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network in the Belt and Road Initiative
This study relies on social network analysis and TERGM to conduct an in-depth exploration of the evolutionary characteristics and influencing mechanisms of agricultural trade net-works among countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative.The findings are as follows:(1)Agricultural trade connections among countries along the Belt and Road Initiative are gradually deepening,and the trade network is becoming increasingly dense.Leading countries like China are playing a more important role due to their information acquisition capabilities,resource control authority,and international trade efficiency.(2)As the Belt and Road Initiative transitions from vision to reality,agricultural trade connections among countries along the route are becoming closer,but there is still significant room for optimization and improvement.Developing countries a-long the Belt and Road Initiative should shoulder a greater responsibility in safeguarding global food security and promoting agricultural development.(3)The formation and evolution of agricul-tural trade relationships within the Belt and Road Initiative are the results of both internal and ex-ternal mechanisms.Internal mechanisms include reciprocity effects,transmission effects,closure benefits,and time-dependent effects,while external mechanisms encompass economic levels,geo-graphical distances,and institutional differences.Ignoring internal mechanisms may lead to biased empirical results.To further consolidate a mutually beneficial situation,it is recommended that:First,China should engage in comprehensive and in-depth communication and cooperation with e-conomies along the route that have large market demands and superior agricultural resources.Second,China should timely and accurately grasp the agricultural product demands,cur-rent agricultural resource situations,legal systems,tax policies,and trade barriers of countries along the route,to advance effective coordination of regional agricultural trade cooperation strategies and positive interactions.Third,China should actively participate in the formulation of international agricultural trade rules,establish multi-level,multi-stakeholder dialogue platforms and cooperation mechanisms with trading partners along the route while promoting complementary and efficient"hard connectivity"and"soft connectivity".
The Belt and Road InitiativeAgricultural trade networkSocial network analysisTemporal exponential random graph model
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