Accurately grasping the law of grain price transmission is the key to protect the in-terests of farmers and consumers.Based on the weekly data provided by the agricultural product database of the Bric Global Agricultural Consulting Co.,Ltd and the Global Information and Early Warning System,this paper analyzes the transmission mode of soybean price from international market to China market in different import dependence periods by using the methods of impulse response function,variance decomposition of forecast error and BEKK-MGARCH model.The re-search shows that domestic and foreign soybean price pass-through effect is more obvious in the period of low import dependence than in the period of high import dependence.Specifically,in the period of low import dependence,there are significant cross-mean effect and cross-fluctuation effect between domestic and foreign soybean prices,but these phenomena are not found in the pe-riod of high import dependence.This paper also finds that policy intervention and market forces are the mechanisms to explain the difference in price transmission under different import depend-ence periods.In the period of high import dependence,the temporary storage policy reduces the cross-mean effect,while target price subsidy policy and"market-oriented acquisition+subsidy"policy reduce the cross-fluctuation effect.In addition,China adopts price discrimination strategy with the help of market forces,and adjusts import price according to exchange rate changes,which led to the decline of price pass-through effect.The conclusion of this paper provides strong support for the government to formulate stable trade policies and avoid price risk shocks.
关键词
大豆市场/价格传递/进口依赖/政策干预/市场势力
Key words
Soybean market/Price transmission/Import dependence/Policy intervention/Market power
维普
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