Exploitation Potential and Carrying Capacity of Water Resources of the Yinghe River Basin
Water pollution and water shortage is a key factor to affect the eco - socio - economic sustainable development in the Ying River Basin By using water load index and building water supple and demand equilibrium model, this paper analyzed the exploitation potential and population carrying capacity of the basin' s water resources. The results showed that water load index of the overall basin was 19. 24, about half of counties and cities greater than 20, which suggested a high degree of water resources utilization and small potential of further development for the basin. According to statistical data, the average amount of water resources of Yinghe River Basin is 94. 51 × 108m3. In addition, there are about 23.69 × 1O8m3 of water that can be quoted from outside the basin in the future. Based on the total amount of available water, the water resources carrying capacity ( WRCC ) of Yinghe River Basin was 27. 33 million persons in 2008, overloading 10. 88%. The equilibrium model predicts that the basin' s WRCC is 35.91 million persons in 2020, 11.62% higher than the expected population. Because of serious surface water pollution, the actual WRCC may be smaller than the above values, if the effects of water quality, water supply guarantee rate and climate changing were considered. These results provide important references for Yinghe River Basin to use water resources rationally, promote saving water and pollution control and plan long - term socio - economic development.
water resources carrying capacityload indexYinghe River Basin