A Case Study of Tianshui City in Gansu: Plantation Preservation Quantity Research Based on Food Security and GM( 1,1 )Model
Taking Tianshui city in Cansu province for example, the aera of cultivated land and the plantation preservation quantity were determined based on Land - use changing data, population and food statistics between 1996 and 2005. The plantation preservation quantity of Tianshui the next 15 years was calculated in mathematical method of CM( 1,1)model. The results show that; the minimum area of cultivated land per capita and the plantation preservation quantity decreased between 1996 and 2005. Moreover, the plantation preservation quantity was alawys 1. The reason was that although per capita cultivated land continued to decline in Tianshui,the food production and per capita continued to increase because of increasing food productivity. The plantation preservation quantity will father reduce and the supply of land productivity was higher than the level of food consumption and regional food security risks was smalle in the next 15 years
food securityCM(1,1) plantation preservation quantitycultivated landTianshui city
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
