从"独占争霸"到"合作防御":大国围绕阿富汗竞争方式的演变
From "Exclusive Hegemony" to "Cooperative Defense" :The Evolution of Major Power Competition over Afghanistan
朱永彪 1王俊超2
作者信息
- 1. 兰州大学西北少数民族研究中心、中亚研究所、政治与国际关系学院;兰州大学政治与国际关系学院;"一带一路"研究中心
- 2. 兰州大学西北少数民族研究中心、政治与国际关系学院
- 折叠
摘要
19世纪初期以来,地缘政治等因素引发大国在阿富汗开展了一系列以军事介入、价值观植入为主要手段的复杂博弈并导致综合性危机.美苏为主的域外大国所秉持的传统博弈方式逐渐失效,加之阿富汗内政外交形势的变化,推动大国围绕阿富汗的竞争方式出现新的演变.突出表现为由美国为主的坚持制衡、排他为主要理念的"独占争霸"型竞争,逐步向以中国及阿富汗周边国家为主的坚持尊重、发展为主要理念的"合作防御"型竞争模式转变.究其根源,奉行强权争霸的逻辑必然导致"囚徒困境",坚持合作防御的理念才能在阿富汗问题上超越零和博弈,使利益相关方互惠互利.未来,中国可在大国围绕阿富汗竞争方式演变的基础上,通过不断完善建设性参与阿富汗问题的方式、巧妙处理与阿富汗当局的关系、平衡处理周边不同国家的分歧,以此共建一个开放、发展的"合作防御"型竞争环境.
Abstract
Since the early 19th century,geopolitical factors have triggered a series of complex dynamics among major powers vis-à-vis Afghanistan,which have involved military interventions and moves to export state ideologies and norms,and which have resulted in full-scale crises.The traditional competitive approaches of external powers exemplified by the US and the USSR have gradually become ineffective,and alongside new developments in Afghanistan's domestic and foreign affairs,there has been a significant evolution in major power competition around Afghanistan.This has been characterized by a shift away from an"exclusive hegemony"model dominated by the U.S.,which focuses on balancing and exclusion,towards a"cooperative defense"model advanced mainly by China and neighboring countries,which emphases respect and development.Fundamentally,the logic of hegemonic power competition inevitably leads to a"prisoner's dilemma".To the contrary,the concept of cooperative defense transcends zero-sum logic in the case of Afghanistan affairs,and thereby yields mutual benefits.In the future,China can enhance constructive participation in Afghan affairs vis-à-vis evolving great state competition by continuously improving its approach,skillfully managing relations with the Afghan authorities,and balancing differences among neighboring countries.In this way,China can contribute to the establishment of a competitive environment characterized by an open and shared concept of"cooperative defense".
关键词
阿富汗/独占争霸/合作防御/大国竞争Key words
Afghanistan/Exclusive Hegemony/Cooperative Defense/Major Power Competition引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据