Correlation Analysis and Prediction Model between Initial Flowering Period of Guoguang Apples and Meteorological Factors in Chengde County
In order to accurately predict the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples in Chengde County,issue flowering risk warnings,and minimize the adverse effects of flowering disasters on apple production,the relationship between the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples and various meteorological factors was statistically analyzed using observation data on the growth status of Guoguang apples in Chengde County from 2010 to 2023 and ground meteorological observation data during the same period.The results showed that the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples was related to the temperature in early January There is a significant correlation between the temperature in late March,the 0cm ground temperature in late March,the shallow ground temperature,and the ground temperature in early and mid April,as well as the initial and accumulated temperatures that pass steadily through≥10℃.Selecting significant factors and applying stepwise regression method to establish a prediction model,the accuracy of the 0~2 day difference between the predicted and actual values of the initial flowering period in the backpropagation test reached 83%.The difference between the predicted and actual values of the initial flowering period from 2022 to 2023 was 3 days and 1 day,respectively.The established prediction model can be used for predicting the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples in Chengde County.
万方数据
维普
