预测模型在麻风病防治中的应用
Application of prediction model in leprosy control
殷荣荣 1赵江2
作者信息
- 1. 大理大学公共卫生学院,云南 大理 671000;云南省疾病预防控制中心,云南 昆明 650022
- 2. 云南省疾病预防控制中心,云南 昆明 650022
- 折叠
摘要
麻风病是一种慢性传染病,如诊治不及时常导致肢体残疾,给病人和社会带来严重的精神和经济压力.目前我国麻风病长期处于低流行且分布不均衡的状态,给我国麻风病防治工作带来挑战.有越来越多的专家学者利用灰色预测模型、时间序列模型和其他模型对麻风病的发病趋势进行预测,其中时间序列模型对麻风病的预测更为准确.笔者对国内外相关文献进行归纳梳理,从麻风病流行现状、发病趋势及预测模型在麻风病防治中的应用进行综述,为麻风病的防治提供科学依据.
Abstract
Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease that often leads to physical disability if not treated properly,bringing severe mental and economic pressure to patients and society.At present,leprosy in China has been in a state of low prevalence and uneven distribution for a long time,which brings challenges to the prevention and treatment of leprosy in China.More and more experts and scholars use grey prediction model,time series model and other models to predict the incidence trend of leprosy,among which the time series model is more accurate.In this paper,we reviewed the relevant literature on leprosy at home and abroad and summarized them,and reviewed the current situation of leprosy epidemic,incidence trend and the application of prediction model in the prevention and control of leprosy,so as to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of leprosy.
关键词
麻风病/预测模型/流行病学/发病趋势/防治Key words
Leprosy/Predictive models/Epidemiology/Incidence trends/Prevention and cure引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据