摘要
本文围绕空气质量指数展开深入探究.首先系统阐述灰色预测模型,包括其优缺点、基本原理以及建模流程.并以太原市为研究样本,将 2017-2024 年空气质量综合指数代入GM(1,1)模型展开预测,获取 2025-2027 年的预测值.通过对 2017-2027年空气质量指数趋势的剖析,发现太原市空气质量虽整体呈改善态势,但存在波动情况,并从政策驱动、产业转型、能源结构、工业排放、气象条件、交通尾气等层面深入分析影响因素.最后从能源结构调整、工业污染治理、气象条件应对、交通尾气控制四个维度提出针对性的措施与建议,旨在为空气质量的持续改善提供参考依据.
Abstract
This paper delves deeply into the research on the Air Quality Index.Firstly,it systematically expounds on the advantages,disadvantages,basic principles,and modeling process of the grey prediction model.Taking Taiyuan City as the research sample,the air quality comprehensive index from 2017 to 2024 is substituted into the GM(1,1)model for prediction,and the predicted values for 2025-2027 are obtained.Through the analysis of the air quality index trend from 2017 to 2027,it can be seen that the air quality in Taiyuan City is generally improving,but there are still fluctuations.Furthermore,from the aspects of policy orientation,industrial transformation,energy structure,industrial emissions,meteorological conditions,and traffic exhaust,the influencing factors of air quality are deeply analyzed.Based on this,from the four dimensions of energy structure optimization,industrial pollution control,meteorological condition response,and traffic exhaust emission reduction,targeted measures and suggestions are put forward,with the expectation of providing useful references for the improvement of air quality.
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