数智型预测情报研究:预测情报研究的新范式
Predictive Intelligence Research Based on Data Intelligence:A New Paradigm for Predictive Intelligence Research in a New Environment
李阳 1孙建军1
作者信息
- 1. 南京大学信息管理学院,南京 210023;南京大学数据智能与交叉创新实验室,南京 210023
- 折叠
摘要
预测情报研究是情报研究的核心要义.本文从可预测与不可预测的辨析、预测情报研究特色理念等角度,梳理了预测情报的实践缘起与研究演进,立足数智时代特征,提出了数智型预测情报研究这一新兴研究范式.本文认为,数智型预测情报研究范式具有大数据支撑、智能技术运用、主动式干预、工程化分析、多尺度描绘和高精度导向等显著新特征,其本质上是"机器经验"崛起带来的预测情报认识论变革.新范式可进一步推动预测情报研究在理念上实现"关口前移"、在内容上实现纵深化挖掘、在应用上向"真实世界"乃至"多重交织世界"迈进.当然,数智型预测情报研究范式的未来发展仍然需要在基础保障、系统性平衡、可解释性、伦理与风险以及人类智慧支持等方面予以高度关切.
Abstract
Predictive intelligence is the core of intelligence research.This study reviews the origin and evolution of predic-tive intelligence based on an analysis of predictability and unpredictability and the characteristic idea of predictive intelli-gence research.Employing the characteristics of the data intelligence environment,this study puts forward a new paradigm called predictive intelligence based on data intelligence,and elaborates upon it according to the features of connotation characteristics,a philosophical perspective,and value significance.The study holds that the predictive intelligence research paradigm based on data intelligence has important new features such as big data support,intelligent technology applica-tion,active intervention,engineering analysis,multi-scale description,high precision orientation,and so on.In essence,this is the epistemological change of predictive intelligence brought about by the rise of"machine experience."The new paradigm can further promote predictive intelligence research to achieve a"forward threshold"in prediction concepts,in-depth mining in prediction content,and"real world"and even"multiple intertwined worlds"in the prediction space.In-deed,the future development of predictive intelligence based on data intelligence still must pay considerable attention to the basic guarantee,systematic balance,interpretability,ethics and risks,and human wisdom support.
关键词
预测/预测情报/数智时代/数智型预测情报研究/研究范式/情报研究Key words
prediction/predictive intelligence/the age of data intelligence/predictive intelligence research based on data intelligence/research paradigm/intelligence research引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BTQ051)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据