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军事需求评估的形式化建模分析

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为更加科学有效评估军事需求,通过需求评估"阶段划分、对象确定、指标构建"等步骤,系统阐述军事需求评估问题;形式化语言对需求论证阶段的方案需求值、落实阶段的能力生成值和检验评估阶段的需求满足值等指标重点描述,研究了需求评估的预期走势;基于Kalman滤波思想对提出的形式化模型进行实验算例分析.结果表明:评估结果能够逐渐逼近理想值,误差可以收敛;评估周期、评估初始值、预测误差、观测误差等因素对评估走势最终结果产生影响;综合评估结果与分项评估指标之间为非线性关系.因此,本文建立的形式化模型能够表征需求评估的基本规律,相关研究成果可以为军事需求评估提供理论参考和支撑.
Formal modeling analysis of military requirement assessment
In order to assess military requirement scientifically and effectively,through steps division of stages,determina-tion of assessment object and construction of assessment indicators are systematically described the military requirement as-sessment problem.Adopt formal language,focus on description of requirement value in the requirements demonstration stage,capability valve in the implementation stage and assessment satisfaction value in the inspection stage assessment.Study their assessments trends.Based on Kalman filter ideas,conduct experimental analysis on the proposed formal model.The results show that assessment trend can gradually approach the ideal value,and errors can converge.Factors such as assessment cy-cle,initial assessment value,expected error,measurement error will have an impact on both the assessment trend and the assessment results.Relationship between the comprehensive assessment results and the sub assessment indicators are non-lin-ear.The results indicate that the basic laws of assessment can be characterized by established formal model.Research results can provide a theoretical basis of military requirement assessment.

requirement assessmentKalman filterformal analysis

马宝林、朱旭宇、都斌

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军事科学院战略评估咨询中心, 北京 100091

需求评估 Kalman滤波 形式化分析

2024

指挥控制与仿真
中国船舶重工集团公司 第七一六研究所

指挥控制与仿真

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.309
ISSN:1673-3819
年,卷(期):2024.46(1)
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