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事件系统视角下网络舆情态势感知研究

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[研究目的]随着互联网技术的发展,网络环境变得日益复杂,网络舆情事件发展态势感知的难度也在不断加大,为网络舆情监管带来了极大挑战.在舆情事件发生时,及时感知其发展态势,厘清其演化特征和规律,藉此提出相应建议,对引导与治理网络舆情具有重要意义.[研究方法]基于事件系统理论,提出一种融合态势感知理论和用户画像的网络舆情态势感知模型.首先,采集舆情事件时间、空间和强度要素相关数据.然后,划分舆情演化阶段、分析网络舆情扩散属性和情绪强度属性的特征.最后,构建Grey-BP神经网络模型,预测网络舆情扩散属性和情绪强度属性的后续发展态势.[研究结论]从事件系统视角出发,构建了融合态势感知理论和用户画像的网络舆情态势感知模型,整体性地探究舆情事件时间、空间和强度要素特征,能够较为全面地阐述网络舆情的演化态势,并可靠地预测其未来演变趋势.
Research on the Perception of Online Public Opinion Situation from the Perspective of Event System
[Research purpose]With the development of Internet technology,the network environment is becoming increasingly complex,leading to an increasing difficulty in perceiving the development trend of online public opinion events,which poses great challenges for on-line public opinion supervision.When online public opinion events occur,it is of great significance to timely perceive their development trend,clarify their evolutionary characteristics and laws,and propose corresponding suggestions for guiding and governing online public o-pinion.[Research method]Based on event system theory,this research proposes an online public opinion situational awareness model that integrates situational awareness theory and user profiling.Firstly,collecting data related to temporal,spatial,and intensity factors of public opinion events.Then,dividing the evolution stages of public opinion,and analyzing the characteristics of the diffusion and emo-tional intensity attributes of online public opinion.Finally,constructing a Grey-BP neural network model to predict the subsequent devel-opment trend of online public opinion diffusion attributes and emotional intensity attributes.[Research conclusion]From the perspective of event systems,a network public opinion situational awareness model integrating situational awareness theory and user profiling is con-structed.The model comprehensively explores the temporal,spatial,and intensity characteristics of public opinion events.It can compre-hensively explain the evolution trend of network public opinion and reliably predict its future evolution trend.

event systemonline public opinionsituation awarenesspublic opinion portraitgovernance of online public opinion

周欢、张培颖、黄晓怡、李轶芳

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湖南工业大学商学院 株洲 412007

事件系统 网络舆情 态势感知 舆情画像 网络舆情治理

国家自然科学基金青年基金湖南省自然科学基金面上项目湖南工业大学研究生科研创新基金湖南省大学生创新创业训练计划一般项目(2022)

718010902023JJ30220CX2342S202211535097

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2024.02.019

情报杂志
陕西省科学技术信息研究所

情报杂志

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.502
ISSN：1002-1965
年,卷(期)：2024.43(2)
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