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突发灾难事件中舆情发酵机理与内在逻辑研究——基于融知发酵模型

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[研究目的]突发灾难事件网络舆情发酵为社会治理带来很大的压力,剖析突发灾难事件中舆情发酵机理,是提高突发灾难网络舆情事件治理精度和效率的实践理据.[研究方法]基于融知发酵模型,采用NCA与fsQCA相融合的方法,选取2018-2022 年期间的133 个突发灾难舆情事件,以发酵底物、发酵菌株、媒体酶、公众酶、发酵场域、发酵周期为条件变量,以发酵产物为结果变量,探究突发灾难事件舆情的发酵机理和理论模式.[研究结论]研究表明:单个变量对发酵产物的影响是有限的,各变量均不构成发酵产物产生的必要条件;突发灾难事件舆情发酵机理的组态包括10 条路径;归纳了交融碰撞型、演化推进型和衍生变异型 3 种驱动突发灾难事件舆情发酵的理论模式.
Research on the Mechanism and Internal Logic of Public Opinion Fermentation in Sudden Disaster Events:Based on the Fusion Fermentation Model
[Research purpose]The network public opinion fermentation of sudden disaster events has brought great pressure to the social governance.This paper analyzes the mechanism of public opinion fermentation in sudden disaster events,which is the practical basis for improving the accuracy and efficiency of public opinion management in sudden disaster network.[Research method]Based on the Fusion Fermentation Model,this paper combines the NCA and fsQCA.A total of 133 sudden disaster events that occurred between 2018 and 2022 were selected.It takes the fermentation substrate,fermentation strain,media enzyme,public enzyme,fermentation field and fermentation period as the condition variables,and the fermentation product as the result variable.This paper explores the mechanism and theoretical model of public opinion fermentation in sudden disaster events.[Research conclusion]This study indicates that the impact of a single var-iable on fermentation products is limited,and each variable does not constitute a necessary condition for the production of fermentation products.The configuration of public opinion fermentation mechanism of sudden disaster events includes 10 paths.This paper summarizes three theoretical models that drive the public opinion fermentation of sudden disaster events,namely,blending collision model,evolution promotion model and derivative variation model.

sudden disaster eventsfusion fermentation modelthe mechanism of public opinion fermentationpublic opinion govern-ancequalitative comparative analysis of fuzzy sets

杨洋洋、胡峰

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郑州轻工业大学经济与管理学院 郑州 450001

江苏省科学技术情报研究所 南京 210042

江苏省科学技术发展战略研究院 南京 210042

南京师范大学国家安全与应急管理研究中心 南京 210023

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突发灾难事件 融知发酵模型 舆情发酵机理 舆情治理 模糊集定性比较分析

河南省哲学社会科学规划项目郑州轻工业大学博士科研基金郑州轻工业大学"党的二十大精神研究"专项

2022CXW0242022BSJJSK03

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2024.03.022

情报杂志
陕西省科学技术信息研究所

情报杂志

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.502
ISSN：1002-1965
年,卷(期)：2024.43(3)
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